EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF FORMATION CHANGES ON GOAL-SCORING POSSIBILITIES IN EUROPE’S TOP FIVE FOOTBALL LEAGUES
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Date
2025-08
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Covenant University Ota
Abstract
This researchexaminestheinfluenceofadaptivetacticalformationswitchingin
Europe’stopfiveleagues.Theresearchappliesextensiveevent-basedmatchdata
from thetopfiveEuropeanleagues(StatsBombdataset,2015/16season)toanalyse
switchesbetweenformationsandtheirinfluenceonmatchresults.Thestudyemploys
Markovchains,reinforcementlearningandgametheorytomodelandanalysethe
frequency andeffectivenessofformationchangesduringfootballmatchesandpro-
vide relevanttacticalinsightsandsuggestions.Thefindingsrevealprofoundstrategic
trends intacticalswitches,attestingtothecentralroleofresponsivenessandflexibil-
ityinmatchdynamics.Themethodsintroducedinthisstudyyieldbetterresultsin
terms ofthecombinationofthemodelscomparetootherexistingmethodswithsingle
methodutilized.Thecombinedmethodsquantifytheprobabilitiesandtrade-offsfor
variousformationchangesandthus,providebettertacticalinsight.
Description
Keywords
FootballAnalytics, Goal-ScoringProbability, MarkovChains, Rein- forcementLearning, GameTheory