Modeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 Incidence
Rate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach

dc.creator	Odekina, O. G., Adedotun, Adedayo F., Imaga, O. F.
dc.date	2022
dc.date.accessioned	2025-04-15T11:13:11Z
dc.description	Modeling the onset of a pandemic is important for forming inferences and putting measures in place. In this study, we used the Vector autoregressive model to model and forecast the number of confirmed covid-19 cases and deaths in Nigeria, taking into account the relationship that exists between both multivariate variables. Before using the Vector Autoregressive model, a co-integration test was performed. An autocorrelation test and a heteroscedasticity test were also performed, and it was discovered that there is no autocorrelation at lags 3 and 4, as well as no heteroscedasticity. According to the findings of the study, the number of covid-19 cases and deaths is on the rise. To forecast the number of cases and deaths, a Vector Autoregressive model with lag 4 was used. The projection likewise shows a steady increase in the number of deaths over time, but a minor drop in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.identifier	http://eprints.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/17568/
dc.identifier.uri	https://repository.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/handle/123456789/48288
dc.language	en
dc.subject	QA Mathematics
dc.title	Modeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach
dc.type	Article

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