Nigerian COVID-19 Incidence Modeling and Forecasting with Univariate Time Series Model
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Sprintger
Abstract
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The occurrence of COVID-19 has given rise to dreadful medical difficulties
due to its hyper-endemic effects on the human population. This made it
fundamental to model and forecast COVID-19 pervasiveness and mortality to
control the spread viably.
The COVID-19 data used was from February, 28, 2020 to March 1, 2021.
ARIMA(1,2,0) was selected for modeling COVID-19 confirmed and ARIMA
(1,1,0) for death cases. The model was shown to be adequate for modeling and
forecasting Nigerian COVID-19 data based on the ARIMA model building results.
The forecasted values from the two models indicated Nigerian COVID-19 cumulative
confirmed and death case continues to rise and maybe in-between
189,019–327,426 and interval 406–3043, respectively in the next 3 months (May
30, 2021). The ARIMA models forecast indicated an alarming rise in Nigerian
COVID-19 confirmed and death cases on a daily basis.
The findings indicated that effective treatment strategies must be put in place, the
health sector should be monitored and properly funded. All the protocols and
restrictions put in place by the NCDC, Nigeria should be clung to diminish the
spread of the pandemic and possible mortality before immunizations that can
forestall the infection is developed.
Keywords
QA Mathematics