Uncertainty assessment of onset sand prediction model for reservoir applications
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Cogent Engineering
Abstract
Description
Modeling physical systems in engineering always comes with uncertainties
in terms of the model’s input parameters. These uncertainties are also present
in modeling the onset of sand production, even though considerable effort may be
required in incorporating uncertainties into the process of modeling, because getting
it right will definitely provide important knowledge about the input parameters
for predicting the onset of sanding which provides useful hints that inform apt
decision-making for sand control. In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation of some
parametric input variables alongside the incorporation of the Hoek–Brown material
constants was investigated using a predictive model for sand production anchored
on Hoek–Brown failure criterion, so as to rank some key input uncertainties in order
of the effect their magnitudinal disparities on the model output. The key inputs in
the model are reservoir pressure, rock strength (uniaxial compressive strength,
UCS), minimum horizontal stress, Poisson’s ratio and Hoek–Brown material constants
M and S.
Different diagnostic Tornado and spider plots were generated and interpreted for
two wells and it was observed that the predicted well pressure is most sensitive to
rock strength and generally has an inverse relationship with the rock strength.
Keywords
T Technology (General), TP Chemical technology